Black Book analysts forecast an annual depreciation rate of 15% in 2019 as the supply of used cars and trucks increases, up from a "noticeably strong" 12.4% depreciation rate in 2018.
Outside factors such as a record-spanning government shutdown, the polar vortex, and a hit to consumer confidence led to a slow start to used sales in 2019.
This growth was in large part fueled by the strong performance of lower-priced vehicles. Compact cars and midsize cars, in specific, saw the strongest growth among all vehicle segments and outperformed the overall market.
The two months of falling vehicle values may be an indicator of what depreciation might look like in 2019.
After several weeks of rising depreciation, vehicle values stabilized last week.
The average prices for used fleet vehicles sold at auction increased 6.2% to $12,464 in 2018, despite a weaker finish to the year that saw a 0.4% decline in December, according to Tom Kontos, KAR Auction Services' chief economist.
Prices and volume are not expected to plummet in 2019, but industry experts seem to feel that the best-case scenario will be a plateau, and more realistically, will fall slightly.
Overall average wholesale prices softened in November from a year ago mostly due to 2017 prices that were elevated due to increased demand from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, even though values of former fleet vehicles increased, according to Tom Kontos, KAR Auction Services' chief economist.
Deprecation was low through most of 2018. Segments such as sedans performed better than they have in years past, while trucks and SUVs continue to retain their values well.
Prior to 2018, sedans at auction had experienced three years of consecutive value declines. For sedan-heavy fleets, this may have meant an impact to total cost of ownership for those vehicles, as profits from remarketing them would have suffered. Now companies with sedan-heavy fleets may be finding that a window of opportunity to remarket those vehicles for better profit has emerged.